The Thunderbolt
Alabama's Nick Saban once issued a dire warning for the future of the college game, then he delivered it
Back on December 21st, while a guest on The Pat McAfee Show, Alabama head coach Nick Saban issued the following warning about the state of the college football world, in particular, in relation to Name-Image-Likeness (NIL) and the transfer portal:
“I think it’s going to continue in the same direction that it’s going until something happens. I call it a thunderbolt, where maybe people start dropping sports because the finance part of it can’t make sense in terms of what you can reinvest in non-revenue sports. Or, some players out there don’t get what they were promised and there’s lots of lawsuits and stuff, you know. There is going to be some kind of a thunderbolt because this is not a system that we have right now that has any guardrails, and in most competitive venues there are some that control what you can and can’t do…Right now, it’s a game of whoever is willing to invest the most has the best chance of having the best team.”
On Wednesday, Saban, the Zeus of college football, personally delivered that thunderbolt, announcing his retirement after 17 seasons at Alabama and six national championships.1
Almost immediately, college football fanatics began tracking flights into and out of Birmingham-Shuttlesworth Airport.
The list of possible candidates for the Bama head job — Kirby Smart from Georgia, Steve Sarkisian from Texas, Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss — coaches who had all been assistants under Saban at one point, were tracked down.
On Thursday, Kiffin, known to poke the bear, posted this picture on X:
As someone with not the greatest history at airports, especially when it comes to his coaching career, it was the troll move of all troll moves.
More will come out as to what led to Saban’s decision to retire, and about the hiring of his replacement, Washington Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer, but you have to know the issues Saban spoke about back in December, had to influence his decision to hang up the whistle.
One of the most surprising things, especially from Bama fans’ perspective, was the fact it even took two days to find Saban’s replacement.
The leading candidate from the time of Saban’s announcement was Oregon head coach Dan Lanning. But on Thursday morning, Lanning posted a video on X of him addressing his team:
He turned down any offers that might have come from Tuscaloosa, and turned it into an opportunity to recruit. “If you’re scared your coach is leaving…then come play for us…” the video reads.
Shots fired.
The transfer portal and NIL have changed the game of college football, as Saban clearly pointed out to McAfee.
It has introduced parity into the game, and at a level never seen before, and that includes for Saban. Where as in the past Saban could stockpile players because of the allure of playing for him, or at Alabama, or in the SEC, he now competes against schools that can offer players immediate playing time, money, rides, and who knows what else!
It’s likely at 72-years-old, Saban didn’t have the energy or desire to deal with this new game of college football. Saban may have already lost something off his fastball. Beside the COVID-shortened conference-only schedule season of 2020, his last national championship was 2017.
This year’s edition of the Crimson Tide may have been the worst Saban’s ever put out on a football field, while maybe being the greatest proof of his coaching prowess. The eventual national semifinalists and SEC champions lost at home to Texas in the second week of the season, and followed that performance up with a 17-3 win against USF. The point being, Alabama was already not dominating in the Age of NIL. Having a 72-year-old coach was not going to help things going forward.
There are two reasons I believe most coaches weren’t jumping at the Bama job.
One is the amount of work they’ve already put into their teams via the transfer portal. Kiffin is a perfect example. One known not to turn down a job — Oakland Raiders, Tennessee, USC, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss — Kiffin now realizes he can compete with any program in the country.
The second reason is next season’s expanded national playoff. Instead of just four teams being chosen, twelve teams, and their coaches, will now be able to call themselves “playoff teams.”
Having that distinction in their back pockets will alleviate a lot of pressure these coaches have felt in the past to go undefeated or win their conference championship. Two-loss teams in the playoff, at least two or three, will be the norm going forward. Not having the guillotine hanging over your head makes your work environment much easier and way more pleasant.
I don’t believe that situation awaits DeBoer in Tuscaloosa.
If Bama fans haven’t realized it yet, especially after this most recent coaching search, competition in college football is heating up. You’ve lost an all-time great college football coach in Saban. You’ve gained one of the best coaches in the game.
But it’s about more than the game these days, and we’ve all just seen the lighting bolt that proves it.
Extra Point:
There’s been encomiums for Coach Saban all week. Here is one of my favorite videos of him that I found while reading them, explaining what organizations need to be successful. It also mentions another coaching legend, Bill Belichick, who also retired this week.
Words of Wisdom from Coach Saban:
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He won seven national championships overall, including one with LSU. He won 11 SEC championships and finished with a career record of 292-71-1.