Worst Case Scenario for James Franklin
The Penn State coach will face two top-ranked teams in the next two weeks
James Franklin just completed a 11-1 regular season, will be coaching for his second Big Ten championship on Saturday, with an opportunity to clinch a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and it might just be the worst case scenario for him.
I’m sure last Saturday morning, as Franklin was readying his Nittany Lions to play Maryland, he had no plans or expectations to be playing another football game before the start of the CFP on December 19th.
The best case scenario, as a 1-loss Power 5 team, he was probably looking at a home game inside the familiar and friendly confines of Beaver Stadium, home to the famous White Out, where 110,000-plus fans come dressed all in white.
Based on the rankings released Tuesday, December 3rd, Penn State would host Arizona State in the first round.
Michigan, however, had other plans.
The Wolverines upset their rival, the Ohio State Buckeyes, 13-10, thus setting in motion the opportunity for the Nittany Lions to clinch a spot in this weekend’s Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis.
Had the Buckeyes defeated Michigan, it would have set up a championship rematch of the October classic the Bucks and Ducks that ended in a 1-point (32-31) victory for still undefeated Oregon.
But Franklin and the Nittany Lions, playing in front of a sparser than usual holiday weekend home crowd, took care of business on their end, defeating the Maryland Terrapins, 44-7.
That victory forces Franklin and the Lions to now play Oregon, a team they were lucky to avoid this regular season, a schedule which also saw Penn State avoid the Michigan Wolverines. Sometimes the scheduling gods smile upon you.
That’s also why things are about to get interesting for Franklin and Penn State over the next 15 days.
Franklin’s record against teams not Ohio State or Michigan is very good. Against those two schools, however, his mark stands at 4-17, including nine straight losses to the Buckeyes.
Against Top 10 teams, Franklin’s career record stands at 3-17. Not much better.
Now you see why the next 16 days will tell us a lot about Franklin, and the many criticisms he routinely faces, such as: he can’t win the big one, he’s a terrible in-game coach, he’s only a recruiter, and if they are true.
The fact Penn State now has to face Oregon, on a week’s notice, is a clear disadvantage, figuring that Franklin and his coaching staff likely woke up on Saturday figuring their next game wouldn’t be until the weekend of December 20-21, and likely at home.
Instead, the Nittany Lions have been thrown into a contest with the No. 1 team in the country.
If the Nittany Lions win, they won’t have to play again until late December.
If Penn State loses, the question will be by how much?
If they keep it close, they probably hold on to the first round home game. If Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning hand it to them, say by three scores, could it be bad enough in the eyes of the playoff committee to send the Lions packing and on the road for the first round?
A loss to Oregon, no matter what the score, will bring up Franklin’s recurring problem of not being able to win against great or elite teams. That will be the storyline heading into the first round.
Whether Franklin likes it or not, it’s deserved. As CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel likes to say, we have enough “data points” on Franklin.
If Franklin loses to Oregon in the Big Ten championship, and then loses — at home — in the first round of the playoffs, the questions and roar from detractors will only grow louder.
Many Penn State fans have tired of Franklin’s litany of excuses and promises when it comes to the Lions’ poor performances in big games.
It’s one thing to talk tough following a blowout win against a bad Maryland team, extorting that the “threes” and “fours” deserve a chance to play and score.
Now it’s time for Franklin to show what he and the “ones” can do against the best teams in the country.
He will have two opportunities to do so in the next two weeks.
We’ll learn a lot between now and then.
If I were writing the Penn State/Oregon game as a movie, the final play of the game would be Penn State at 4th and goal on the 1 yard line needing the TD to win the game, and James Franklin calls a triple reverse that gets snuffed out, loses the game, and then he tries to fight the Duck mascot.
I am cheering for Penn State though, should be a fun game and could be close on a neutral site. Autzen and Beaver Stadium give such a home field advantage, it will be interesting to see when neither team has 90% of the crowd behind them.