The Committee did right for the Playoffs
Not a popular opinion but the truth
So we’re 24 hours since the announcement of the College Football playoffs and boy are there some thoughts! And before I dive into my opinion, this isn’t about a Gator fans hate or an SEC homer’s thoughts, it’s truth.
It may not be truth people want to hear. Florida State went undefeated and won their conference despite the loss of QB Jordan Travis. Good for them. But if you’ve listened to the show at all this year I’ve constantly questioned how good they truly were even with before Travis’s injury. They struggled against Boston College. They held on to beat Clemson after they had a guy they pulled from grad school come back and miss a 29 yard field goal. They struggled against Duke until Riley Leonard was injured. They struggled against a Miami team that is not that good. And after the injury neither replacement QB’s could muster a first down until late in the first half. The defense has stepped up! But against a woeful Florida team that wouldn’t throw the ball in the 2nd half. And a Louisville team that had nothing to play for. At the end of the day, their 12-0 is different from that of Michigan and Washington.
And I know everyone wants to pile on because the SEC team got in and they didn’t. And I’m sure TV ratings played a part in that no matter what the committee says. But why is Alabama the only team being questioned as to why they are ahead of Florida State? Let’s start with Texas. Texas was #7 in the AP poll the week before the conference championships. After winning the Big 12 and FSU winning the ACC and going undefeated Texas vaulted to #3, not FSU. Texas has not been a world beater until the past two weeks. Texas Tech was 6-6 on the season. Oklahoma State lost to South Alabama early in the year. And they escaped more times than they would care to remember after the Oklahoma loss.
Washington has struggled mightily since they beat Oregon the first time. But there was no question as to if they were in. There should have been. They escaped more times than they would probably care to remember as well. But they were the early season darling and made it through unscathed in a PAC 12 that was accused of being loaded. The ACC did not have nearly as many ranked teams as the PAC 12 did throughout the year.
Then we come to Michigan. Let’s not forget they did not play a real football game until November and they haven’t looked like world beaters since that first encounter yet with a team with a pulse. Oh, and that also coincides with the sign stealing scandal coming out. Their coach has been suspended for half the season. If the NCAA was ever timely with their “investigations” we might have had this resolved before the 2037 season.
But no one’s questioned these teams. How about Georgia? The two time defending national champions who lost for the first time in 30 games. By three. To a top 8 team. No one is saying they should have been considered for the playoffs except them. Why? Did they suddenly become a terrible football team? How about Ohio State? One loss to Michigan on the road. They were ranked 6th coming into the final votes but had no game to play and they fell to 7th and no one has even mentioned them.
The real truth is that FSU would not be favored or even remotely close to favored against any of the teams in the playoffs. To put that into more perspective, they are currently a 14-1/2 point dog to Georgia in the Orange Bowl. Why? Because on paper and via the eye test people don’t think they can win. ESPN Bets did hypothetical lines if FSU was matched up with any of the four teams selected for the playoffs. They would be a 12-1/2 point dog to Michigan. A 12 point dog to Alabama. A 9-1/2 point dog to Texas. And finally a 6 point dog to Washington. The current matchups? Michigan is favored by 1-1/2 points over Alabama. Texas is favored by 4 over Washington. I bring Vegas into this to illustrate how good the games we have could be. And how awkward the games could be if FSU was included. It may not be popular but the comittee got it right. For the good of the playoffs. If Jordan Travis hadn’t gotten hurt we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation. But remember this. Before Travis got hurt, they were trailing 13-0, at home, to North Alabama. As another point, remember when the committee put Notre Dame in because they were undefeated? How did that work out? This was the best decision for the committee based on what was available. Sorry if you don’t like it. Next year this all goes away and peace will return. Until the 13th ranked team cries, what about me?