Mid-Season Report: Do we know anything more than we did at the start?
Mid-Season Report: Do we know anything more than we did at the start?
Our resident college football expert, John Crimella, tries to make sense out of the first eight weeks of the season
Everyone thinks they know something at certain points. Count college football “experts” among them.
When this season started, the only thing we knew for sure was this season would be different. With the onset of the College Football Playoff, more teams would now have a shot at ultimate glory.
And we thought we knew who some of these teams would be. So where do we stand?
Here’s a brief snapshot of the conferences and what I think we know:
American Athletic Conference
Why are we talking about the AAC? Well, with the new college football playoff, the top ranked group of 5 team gets a spot in the playoff.
Early on, we saw Memphis win a game against Florida St. on the road and thought, “OK. Maybe they can be that team?” But they quickly went out and lost the next game.
So what about the AAC
is still appealing?
Domination by both Service Academies. Army and Navy are both undefeated for the first time since the ‘40s. They hold the top two spots in the conference and have the same path to the playoffs — a game against Notre Dame and then the season finale against each other. If they each win-out, that early December Army-Navy game will be an instant classic.
Mountain West Conference
The Mountain West boasts the current highest-rated Group of 5 team in Boise State.
All-world running back Ashton Jeanty leads on most ballots in the Heisman race.
The Broncos are also no stranger to the top of polls, just ask Oklahoma1.
But getting invited to the first 12-team playoff would be big for the program. UNLV, meanwhile, stands in their way and that will be the make-or-break game for the Broncos this Friday.
I want to say this too. If Boise St. wins out and Army or Navy goes undefeated, they should both be in, no matter the rankings, and that would be an interesting issue for the committee.
Notre Dame is the independent team that can steal a spot if they finish the season without losing again. They’ve got tough games against Army and Navy coming up, but both teams are in the thick of a playoff run too.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Low hanging fruit first.
Florida St. was ranked No. 10 in the preseason polls. As we’ve seen thus far, they are a comedy of errors. It’s embarrassing. The only thing more embarrassing is if you’re Cal, which somehow lost to the Seminoles.
In reality, this looks like a two-horse race.
Miami (7-0) looked really good the first three games. But the Hurricanes’ last three have been lessons in how to escape. They are on the verge of getting bit, but still look like the class of the ACC.
Clemson (6-1) is the complete opposite. The Tigers looked really bad against Georgia in the season opener. They continued to win following that, but looked rough for a couple of weeks.
But Clemson’s past three games have been crisp and prove as a reminder of the Clemson teams of the past decade. Getting better versus getting by may come to a head in the ACC title game, and the we’ll see what both teams have.
But if they both continue to win with the only one loss being to the other in the conference championship game, both the Hurricanes and Tigers should make the playoffs.
Big XII
This is the one conference I feel I was close to being right about.
This conference has just cannibalized each other.
The early season favorites have all taken hits.
Utah lost Cam Rising (again) for the season. Oklahoma State looks a bit lost, for lack of a better term. Kansas State continues to fight, but has a loss.
So that leaves the two undefeateds.
Iowa State (7-0) has looked good, but struggled this past weekend against UCF.
The other team is BYU (7-0). And they’ve looked good the majority of the season.
But I get the sense both of these teams are waiting to step on a land mine.
And this conference doesn’t look like it will get more than the conference champ into the playoffs.
Big Ten
Ok, meat and potatoes time.
First, let’s talk about the shockers — Indiana and Illinois.
Indiana (7-0) is undefeated and has looked good doing it, and their schedule sets up for a shot at magic.
Michigan is officially in rebuild mode. After that, Ohio State. They catch the Buckeyes the week before The Game. If Ohio State gets caught looking ahead, Indiana could secure a spot in the Big Ten title game while eliminating Ohio State from both the conference title game and the CFP.
Illinois (6-1) has a loss, but they play a pivotal role in the rest of the conference’s season. They travel to Oregon this week, where the newly minted No. 1 team in the country will be waiting. If they throw a wrinkle into the mess with a win this week, they not only have a shot of winning out, but would hold the tie-breaker with the Ducks.
Ohio State (5-1) is a team that is built for the long haul, just not the one to Oregon. They should be a shoo-in for an at large bid.
Penn State (6-0) has everything laid out in front of them.
They’re undefeated and can run the table, make the conference title game and be in the playoffs — win or lose.
But it’s time to see if coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions can win a big game first.
Meaning: Ohio State. Why is it always Ohio State? They get them at home. Now it’s time to either step-up or there will always be questions.
Oregon (7-0) is moving along in its first Big Ten season. They looked a little rough in the beginning of the year but keep looking better. And they do not have a lot of challenges remaining on the horizon.
Illinois is next and the best opponent remaining on the schedule. If they get through the Illini, they should be assured of a spot in the conference title game.
Looks to me like three to four Big Ten teams make the playoffs. The only question is, which ones?
Southeastern Conference
So at the beginning of the season the darling conference was sitting pretty with 7 of the top 12 ranked teams in the country.
After Saturday, they have no undefeated teams remaining.
That’s what happens when you beat each other up. So the question is, who among these teams are still in the hunt?
Alabama (5-2) seems done. Not because of two losses, but because of a loss to Vanderbilt (5-2). And I realize that’s not being fair to Vandy.
Bama looks like a good team and a terrible team all in the same game, every game.
Even in its biggest win over Georgia, it was a tale of two halves. They could do nothing wrong in the first half. And nothing right in the second, except for a spectacular spin move by freshmen phenom Ryan Williams to pull out a win.
At this point, I do not see them making the playoffs unless a lot of other dominoes fall.
Ole Miss (5-2) was another darling at the beginning of the year. Transfer portal and recruiting kings.
Only to find out they are still the same team that can’t win ‘em all.
Has Lane Kiffin just found the end of the road at Ole Miss, or is this just who he is as a coach? This team had its best chance to be in the playoffs and a conference champion, but they squandered their opportunity, and during a down Alabama season too.
Missouri (6-1) is an odd duck to me. They looked unstoppable the first two weeks of the season, but they lost it all when they got to the meat of their schedule. They have only one loss, but could just as easily have two or three.
LSU (6-1) just keeps finding ways to win. I think the Tigers’ defense is still a bit suspect, but they are improving. They’ve got chances to improve their playoff standing with remaining games against Texas A&M and Alabama. But those teams could prove to be detrimental to the Tigers’ chances.
Texas A&M (6-1) lost its opener to Notre Dame but has continued to improve ever since. They’ve had good play at quarterback and are stabilizing on defense with a new coaching staff.
But LSU and Texas loom, so you have to ask, can they make their dreams come true, or will they fall flat on their faces.
Texas (6-1) found out about playing in the SEC on Saturday night.
If you want to be king, you better not miss. And they did on Saturday against Georgia.
The good news is they have a favorable remaining schedule. The biggest obstacle will be Texas A&M in the season finale. But maybe this was the wake up call the Longhorns needed. If you learn the lesson, you can be better prepared to not repeat the mistakes.
Tennessee, oh Tennessee.
I’m sure they feel good right now, taking down Alabama. But let’s face facts, their offense is no juggernaut. The defense looks capable, but lost at times. The Volunteers haven’t looked good in the first of half of the last three games. They can’t afford to start that way against Georgia, or they could end up on the outside of the playoff looking in.
That takes us to Georgia (6-1). The Bulldogs haven’t been a dominant team. They struggle at times. At other times, they look like the team we expect them to be. Just ask Texas.
But Georgia may have the most daunting schedule left, with match-ups against Tennessee and Ole Miss. One slip and we’ll see if they can stay in the playoff race.
So how many teams from the SEC will make the playoffs? That remains to be seen. The chance to beat the snot out of each other and cost the league playoff spots is real.
One other note, just because it’s me.
Was it really six weeks ago that I had given up all hope and abandoned the SS Billy Napier?
My Florida Gators (4-3) looked lost and uninterested.
Yes, they beat the tar out of the lame filler-game opponent, but then got shellacked by Texas A&M, and the cries for Billy’s head intensified.
One bye week later and following a 46-28 beat down of Mississippi State, there was a spark of optimism.
Then UCF was a good looking win. Tennessee was a shot at getting over the hill, and they were close, but just couldn’t get there.
And then on Saturday they put up 48 points on a Kentucky team that has been a better defensive team this season.
So who is Florida? Do they even know?
The biggest changes are they look interested in being there. And did the fan base, me included, get blinded by the fact that we saw three early-season losses? But in Napiers’ defense, those losses were to the No. 5, No. 8 and No. 14 teams in the country.
Maybe as Gators fans, we expect too much. Maybe this team is growing. Truthfully, I’m excited for the rest of the season, no matter how difficult it may be.
So halfway through, what do we know? It’s simple, we know exactly what we knew at the beginning of the year. That is, we don’t know squat.
And that’s what makes college football so magical.
The Boise State Broncos upset the Oklahoma Sooners 43–42 in overtime at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on January 1, 2007. With the score tied, Boise State lined up for a two-point conversion. Quarterback Jared Zabransky kept the ball behind his back, and running back Ian Johnson ran uncontested to the corner of the end zone for the winning score. This play is known as the "Statue of Liberty" play.